RoryThackerol的部落格

By Ronald Delegge

Getting an entrenched see is a good recipe for failure. And probably, there is no better Wall Street circumstance study than Peter Schiff, a precious metals permabull. Never ever brain his incorrect phone calls about a U.S. dollar collapse.

On Feb. thirteen, 2013, Schiff stubbornly reiterated his bullish check out of gold, currently being quoted - as his community relations handlers often make confident he is - in all the mainstream media shops that nonetheless accept his conspiracy principle baloney. Schiff's certain call was that gold is headed to $5,000 an ounce.

Below is a chart that demonstrates how gold and gold mining shares have done because Schiff's dread mongering $five,000 per ounce call. Each the SPDR Gold Believe in ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) are down 28% and 55% respectively since Feb. 2013.

(click to enlarge)

Furthermore, just as Schiff was spewing his rosy gold forecast, we stated to do the actual opposite. In our timestamped Weekly ETF Decide from Feb.14, 2013 we wrote to our viewers:

The Industry Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) has lagged both the broader U.S. stock marketplace together with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLDforty one by a very substantial margin. At current, GDX trades close to $41.fifty and is well under the two its 50 and two hundred day shifting typical. Buy the Direxion Day-to-day Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (NYSEARCA:DUST) at these amounts. A double digit slide for gold would most likely translate into a 20%+ decline in mining shares. This situation gives some massive upside potential for bears.

In that very same report, we told our subscribers to buy JUN 40 GDX put options at $190. In early June 2013, we sold these exact same GDX set alternatives for a 525% acquire at $one,200 for every contract. We also bought DUST for a double digit achieve.

We adopted that up with an additional gold inform on Aug. 1, 2013 by getting DUST between $seventy four-75. And for every our 8/six/thirteen intraday electronic mail alert we bought the remaining 50 percent of DUST at $102 for a blended 23.five% one-week achieve. It was a great trade!

Meanwhile, Schiff trapped to his Hail Mary $five,000 for every ounce gold prediction.

Did we permit one particular fantastic bearish trade to maintain us entrenched in a singularly adverse look at of cherished metals? Not at all! In truth, just as we observed unfavorable sentiment towards gold climaxing, we employed it as a great brief-expression chance to purchase when other individuals had been panic selling. You've got listened to about doing the reverse of the crowd, right?

By means of our our ETF Weekly Decide issued on Dec. 26, 2013 - when the planet was hung over from the vacation and those who were not were furiously unloading gold - we wrote to our visitors:

After 12 months-stop tax reduction selling is over, we're anticipating a bounce in crushed down gold miners in Januar minix neo x8 android tv box. It remains to be witnessed regardless of whether this bounce will turn into a greater development alter for GDX from down to up, but it is however a short-time period profit chance for aggressive contrarians. Our tandem choices trade is to acquire the GDX JAN 2013 twenty get in touch with possibilities (GDX140124C00020000) at around $140. The call possibilities expire on Jan.24, 2014.

How did our limited-term GDX bullish trade turn out? We bagged a 26.five% two-week achieve on our GDX trade. And the only factor much better than that variety of efficiency return, is the opportunity to do it once again.

Just as rollercoaster sentiment wave toward gold and gold miners was once again souring, by means of our Weekly Pick issued on June five, 2014 we wrote to audience:

Although the Market place Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has done about two times as bad as gold alone more than the previous a few months (see chart under), we're purchasing GDX shares at all around $22.25 up to a restrict of $22.75. Our tandem options trade is to acquire the GDX JUL 2014 22 get in touch with (GDX140719C00022000) at around $one hundred for each agreement.

On six/24 we sold the Ultimate 50 % of our GDX JUL 2014 22 call options (GDX140719C00022000) at $365 per contract whilst on 6/17 we bought our 1st fifty percent at $212. Our a single-month blended earnings for this trade was 188%. Our unleveraged GDX trade also resulted in a obtain.

Fail to remember about what transpired in the past, what about now?

The forty four% pop in the Direxion Day-to-day Jr. Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (NYSEARCA:JDST) and the 30% bounce in DUST in excess of the previous five days has been great to our audience. We've presently bagged double digit gains in just a make a difference of days and we nonetheless have other open up gold ETF trades that are up huge also.

Though the value trend for gold and mining stocks has been down considering that 2011, our entire body of perform displays that not becoming entrenched in a singularly rigid see has authorized us to capitalize on the two bullish and bearish trades. Now what?

If gold's supreme knockout punch is however in advance, listening to the sorry suggestions of gold permabulls like Peter Schiff will not likely help you. Not unless of course you want to be on the receiving finish of an ugly TKO.

Disclosure: No positions

Website link to the first put up on ETFguide.com